January 2026

January is always the slowest month of the Hamilton real estate calendar — buyers are cautious after the holidays, new listings are thin, and the numbers need to be read with that seasonal context in mind. But January data is not without value. It sets the baseline for the year, it shows where prices and inventory sit coming out of the December lows, and it offers an early signal of what the spring market might look like.

The January 2026 data shows a market continuing to correct from the 2022 peak — sales down, prices down, days on market up — but with one standout number buried in the data that buyers and sellers should both pay close attention to heading into spring.

January 2026 at a Glance — The Key Numbers

Hamilton recorded 310 total residential sales in January 2026, a decline of 18.2% from January 2025. New listings fell even more sharply — down 19.8% year over year to 759 total listings. Total inventory came in at 1,502 active listings, up 5.8% from January 2025 — reflecting carry-over inventory from the elevated supply environment of mid-2025.

The average residential sale price in January was $731,047, down 4.3% from January 2025. The median sale price was $664,000, down 6.9%. Sellers received an average of 96.6% of their list price — down 1.4% year over year, indicating buyers are negotiating but not dramatically discounting well-priced homes.

Homes sat on the market for an average of 56 days in January — up 5.7% from January 2025’s 53-day average. That is a relatively modest year-over-year increase compared to what the data showed through most of 2025, and it is worth noting that 56 days in January reflects the seasonal slowdown rather than a deteriorating trend. Months of supply sits at 3.3 — up 17.9% from January 2025 but meaningfully below the 4–5 month readings that persisted through mid-2025.

The Number Worth Paying Attention To — Affordability Up 15.8%

The standout figure in January’s data is not the price decline or the sales volume drop. It is the Housing Affordability Index, which came in at 66 in January 2026 — up 15.8% from January 2025’s reading of 57.

To understand why this matters: the affordability index measures the relationship between median household income and the income required to qualify for a median-priced home at prevailing interest rates. An index of 66 means the median income is 66% of what is needed to qualify — which is still below 100 — but the direction of improvement is significant. Hamilton homes are more financially accessible to qualified buyers now than they have been at any point since before the 2021 run-up.

For single family homes specifically, the affordability index is 62 — up 19.2% year over year. For townhouses and condos it is 73 — up 12.3%. These are meaningful improvements that are happening simultaneously with price correction and some rate relief. When affordability improves this substantially, it creates the conditions for eventual demand recovery — even if that recovery is gradual.

Single Family vs. Townhouse and Condo — January’s Split

The divergence between property types that characterised the second half of 2025 continued into January, though with some important nuances in the data.

Single family homes saw a sales decline of 18.6% year over year — from 247 to 201 sales. The average sale price came in at $808,888, down 4.3% from January 2025. The median was $705,000, down 10.2% — the largest median price decline of the two categories and one worth contextualising: January single family volumes are thin, and a handful of higher-priced sales in January 2025 can distort the year-over-year comparison. The average price decline of 4.3% is the more reliable signal. Days on market for single family homes averaged 56 days. Months of supply sits at 2.8 — an actual decrease from the prior month and approaching territory where supply is genuinely constrained.

New listings for single family homes fell 25.4% year over year — the sharpest single-category listing decline in the dataset. Sellers are not putting homes on the market. That supply contraction, combined with a months-of-supply reading of 2.8, tells you the single family segment is tightening even as prices continue to correct year over year.

The townhouse and condo segment saw a 17.4% sales decline — from 132 to 109 sales. Average price came in at $587,504, down 3.9%. Median was $597,000, down 4.9%. Days on market averaged 58 days. Months of supply sits at 4.4 — up 41.9% year over year and the highest of any property category in January, reflecting continued inventory pressure in this segment. New listings for townhouses and condos fell 9.3% year over year — a more modest decline than the single family segment, which partly explains why the condo segment’s months of supply remains elevated relative to single family.

Benchmark Prices by Property Type — January 2026

The benchmark price data gives the most accurate apples-to-apples view of where values sit for a typical home in each category.

Detached homes: $812,975, down 2.8% year over year. The most resilient benchmark price decline of any category in January — detached homes are holding their value better than other property types.

Semi-detached homes: $581,329, down 10.5% year over year. The steepest year-over-year benchmark decline in January, reflecting the segment’s continued softness.

Row homes (townhouses): $639,343, down 5.6% year over year. A moderate correction consistent with the broader townhouse market trend.

Apartments and condos: $444,692, down 2.3% year over year. Notably, this is the second-smallest benchmark decline after detached homes — and after the benchmark uptick we saw in the February data, it suggests the condo segment’s quality-adjusted value may be finding a floor even as headline average prices remain under pressure.

What the January Price Recovery From December Tells Us

One dynamic in January’s data that deserves specific attention: the average sale price bounced from $663,558 in December 2025 to $731,047 in January 2026 — a jump of approximately $67,000. This is not a sign that the market surged in January. It reflects the seasonal composition effect: December sales skew toward lower-priced properties as high-end buyers step back, and January sales return to a more typical distribution. The year-over-year comparison of 4.3% down is the right way to read January’s price data, not the month-over-month jump.

That said, the fact that the average sale price remained above $730,000 in January — historically the slowest and lowest-priced month of the year — tells you there is a price floor forming at current levels. The worst of the correction appears to be behind Hamilton’s market, at least in the single family segment.

What the Broader Context Says — National Signals in January

Nationally, Canadian home sales declined 2.7% month-over-month in January according to CREA, with the drop linked to slowdowns in Montreal, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Calgary — major markets rather than Southern Ontario specifically. Year-over-year, national sales were down 4.5%.

CREA noted that despite the declines, demand remains strong and with interest rates holding steady, the spring market could be more active. New listings fell 2% nationally — marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline — leaving 133,495 properties listed on all Canadian MLS systems heading into January. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index dipped 0.3% month-over-month, with most of the decline driven by markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

That last point is significant for Hamilton. The Greater Golden Horseshoe — which includes Hamilton directly — was specifically identified as the primary source of national price weakness in January. This tells you Hamilton’s correction is part of a broader regional dynamic rather than something specific to local conditions, and that the same factors that eventually stabilise other GGH markets will stabilise Hamilton’s as well.

What This Means for Hamilton Buyers in Early 2026

For buyers, January 2026 presents one of the more favourable entry points Hamilton has seen in years. Prices are down meaningfully from the 2022 peak across every property category. Affordability has improved 15.8% year over year. And with months of supply at 3.3 overall — and just 2.8 for single family homes — the buyer leverage that peaked in mid-2025 is beginning to moderate.

The single family segment is the one to watch most closely. At 2.8 months of supply, combined with a 25.4% collapse in new listings year over year, the conditions for a supply squeeze in detached homes are building. Buyers who have been waiting for the absolute bottom in single family pricing should be aware that the supply picture is tightening faster than the price data alone would suggest.

The condo and townhouse segment still offers more leverage for buyers — 4.4 months of supply is meaningfully above balanced territory — but the benchmark data showing only a 2.3% year-over-year decline for apartments in January suggests this segment may be closer to finding its floor than the months-of-supply figure implies.

Getting pre-approved before the spring market is the most important thing a buyer can do right now. The window of maximum buyer leverage is not closing quickly, but it is narrowing. Browse current MLS listings to understand what your budget gets you across Hamilton’s different neighbourhoods and property types.

What This Means for Hamilton Sellers in Early 2026

For sellers, the January data contains genuinely encouraging signals — if you know where to look.

The 25.4% collapse in new single family listings year over year means that heading into the spring market, your competition is thinner than it has been in any recent January. Buyers who are active in January and February are motivated — they are not casual browsers. The 96.6% list-price-received figure tells you that accurately priced homes are still selling close to asking even in the slowest month of the year.

The risk for sellers remains the same as it has been throughout 2025: overpricing. With months of supply at 3.3 and days on market averaging 56 days, there is no room for optimistic pricing. Homes that enter the market priced above current comparable sales will sit, accumulate days on market, and attract lowball offers. Homes priced accurately from day one will sell — and in the single family segment, they may attract meaningful competition by the time March and April arrive.

If you are considering selling in 2026, the strategic window to list is approaching. Getting a realistic evaluation of your home’s current value — based on what has actually sold near you in the last 60 days, not peak-market pricing — is the right first step.

Frank’s free home evaluation gives you exactly that, with no obligation to list.

Looking Ahead — What January Sets Up for Hamilton’s Spring Market

January 2026 sets up a spring market that is more interesting than the headline numbers suggest. Three dynamics to watch as the year develops.

Supply contraction is the critical variable. Single family new listings down 25.4% year over year in January — and total new listings down 19.8% — means the spring market will have less inventory than spring 2025. If that trend continues into the traditionally high-listing months of March through May, buyer demand will be competing for fewer properties, which is the mechanism that begins to stabilise and eventually reverse price declines.

Affordability improvement is building demand quietly. With the affordability index up 15.8% year over year, more buyers qualify for Hamilton homes today than did a year ago. That latent demand is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confidence to return — whether from rate direction, job market stability, or simply the perception that the correction is ending. When it comes off the sidelines, it will hit a tighter supply environment than 2025 offered.

The condo and townhouse segment’s trajectory through the first quarter will determine whether the February and April benchmark data — which showed some positive signals in that category — represents a genuine trend or statistical noise from low transaction volumes. Watch the March data closely for confirmation.

Frank Lombardo covers Hamilton, Ancaster, Stoney Creek, Burlington and the surrounding area. If you have questions about what January’s numbers mean for your specific situation or neighbourhood, reach out directly.

Call or text: 905-730-2747